Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario % of orig. R0 % increase from current Effective R0
0 23.0 0.00000 0.94
1 35.8 55.65217 1.46
2 48.7 111.73913 1.99
3 61.5 167.39130 2.51
4 74.3 223.04348 3.03
5 87.2 279.13043 3.56
6 100.0 334.78261 4.08

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 0.94
  • % of original R0: 23
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.46
  • % of original R0: 35.8
  • % Increase from current: 55.6521739

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.99
  • % of original R0: 48.7
  • % Increase from current: 111.7391304

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.51
  • % of original R0: 61.5
  • % Increase from current: 167.3913043

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.03
  • % of original R0: 74.3
  • % Increase from current: 223.0434783

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.56
  • % of original R0: 87.2
  • % Increase from current: 279.1304348

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 4.08
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 334.7826087