Social distancing scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- The Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- The % of original \(R0\): % of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- The % increase from current: % increase from current (as of 2020-05-23) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | % of orig. R0 | % increase from current | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.0 | 0.00000 | 0.94 |
| 1 | 35.8 | 55.65217 | 1.46 |
| 2 | 48.7 | 111.73913 | 1.99 |
| 3 | 61.5 | 167.39130 | 2.51 |
| 4 | 74.3 | 223.04348 | 3.03 |
| 5 | 87.2 | 279.13043 | 3.56 |
| 6 | 100.0 | 334.78261 | 4.08 |
Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 0.94
- % of original R0: 23
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 1.46
- % of original R0: 35.8
- % Increase from current: 55.6521739
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 1.99
- % of original R0: 48.7
- % Increase from current: 111.7391304
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 2.51
- % of original R0: 61.5
- % Increase from current: 167.3913043
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 3.03
- % of original R0: 74.3
- % Increase from current: 223.0434783
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 3.56
- % of original R0: 87.2
- % Increase from current: 279.1304348
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 4.08
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 334.7826087
